Tuesday, August 10, 2010

A Critical Look at Peak Oil Catastrophism

by Toby Hemenway

There is no doubt that oil is running out. But to believe that it will surely bring the end of the world, you must believe that:

1. Our demand for oil is unchangeable and is not significantly affected by price.
2. We are so badly addicted to oil that we will watch our civilization collapse rather than change our behavior.
3. Significant oil conservation is not possible in the time frame needed.
4. Even with conservation, demand will be more than oil plus alternatives can possibly meet.
5. Society is so fragile that it cannot withstand large shocks.
These are the significant beliefs needed to be a Peak Oil catastrophist. Each is false. Let’s look at them.

Read more: http://patternliteracy.com/apocalypse,not.html