Tuesday, September 14, 2010

The Economics of Happiness

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In 1934, one of the original developers of the Gross National Product economic indicator (GDP) cautioned that “the welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income.” Deeply flawed though it is, GDP became our primary way to measure the wealth, and health, of nations.  But this week, for the first time in seventy years, we may be moving towards using a more accurate barometer.

The leader of a major developed country, President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, has announced that he intends to begin a ‘great revolution’ in the way we measure social progress. The announcement came after a year and a half of research by a commission set up by the President to reconsider the way progress is measured. The commission was chaired by former chief economist at the World Bank, Joseph Stiglitz, and its star-studded cast included development guru Amartya Sen, Nobel-prize winning psychologist Daniel Kahneman, and economist-turned-climate-change-hero Lord Nicholas Stern.

The commission’s final report, which has been fully endorsed by President Sarkozy, recognizes that “new political narratives are necessary to identify where our societies should go” and boldly advocates for “a shift of emphasis from a ‘production-oriented’ measurement system to one focused on the well-being of current and future generations.” Their conclusions echo what many normal people feel—in the UK, where I live, a 2006 poll found that 81 percent of people believed that the government's primary objective should be the "greatest happiness" of its citizens, rather than the "'greatest wealth."

The main problem with using GDP as a primary economic indicator is that, ultimately, it is simply the sum of all transactions in a country. It values guns and prisons in the same way it values music and medicine: by how much money changes hands. When the Exxon Valdez spilt its oil on the shores of Alaska in 1989 it increased U.S. GDP by $2 billion, thanks to the costs of the clean-up operation. But when a free concert is put on in a town square, or a parent participates on a school board, or a volunteer helps a charity, the change to the balance sheet is a big zero.

Here in the UK, people are starting to talk about the end of the recession because the GDP is expected to increase a fraction. But meanwhile, unemployment has risen to its highest levels this century, and is expected to continue rising. According to indicators that reflect the effect of the economy on people’s lives, the recession has just begun.

GDP also treats money the same no matter whom it goes to, though economists know full well the concept of diminishing returns. A dollar represents a day’s labor for half the population of sub-Saharan Africa. But for the CEOs of the world’s biggest banks, it wouldn’t even be worth their time to bend over to pick it up off the floor.

GDP is unable to capture any environmental impacts: neither the depletion of finite resources, nor the pollution of a river, nor the long-term effects of climate change. According to GDP, a fish swimming in the sea has no value until it is dead and in a packing factory.

And, perhaps, even more fundamentally, GDP gives no way of assessing people’s well-being. How is it possible that a small Central American country—Costa Rica—has higher average life expectancy and higher levels of happiness than the U.S. despite having a per capita GDP one quarter the size? Material conditions are important to people, but they do not determine everything—far more important are people’s friends, their community, their health, their aspirations, how they use their time and whether they feel valued.

In recognition of these failures, the commission recommended that France find replacement measures of material living standards—such as household income, income distribution, and access to education and health—that shift emphasis from GDP to well-being and sustainability.

Should he enact all of the commission’s twelve recommendations, Sarkozy will have gone a long way towards dealing with many of the criticisms of GDP. However, having better data in our national statistics offices is only the first step. Our political leaders and their economic advisers need to recognize that these new measures must be a first step to a broader redefinition of progress.

A strong stable economy is important, but only as one of several tools for achieving what matters: high, equitable well-being that doesn’t destroy the planet. This must surely be the goal for any society, and we need to measure progress towards this. As the British economist Andrew Oswald says: “Economic things only matter insofar as they make people happier.”

If you realize that you’ve built your house on quicksand, it’s not enough to strengthen the floor. You need to move. Our economies, built on the myth of GDP, are crumbling in the face of economic and environmental crises. We need a stronger foundation on which to build a better life.

Saamah AbdallahSaamah Abdallah wrote this article for YES! Magazine. Saamah is a researcher at the Centre for Well-Being in nef (the new economics foundation) and co-author of the National Accounts of Well-Being.

What is Real Wealth?

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We've been measuring happiness in all the wrong ways. What's the pathway to true quality of life?

When I was 21, I told my father that I didn’t want to work with him any longer at the ice cream company he co-founded, Baskin-Robbins, and I didn’t want to depend on his financial achievements. I did not want to have a trust fund or any other access to or dependence on his money. I wanted to discover and live my own values, and I knew that I wasn’t strong enough to do that if I remained tethered, even a little, to my father’s fortune.

I left Baskin-Robbins and the money my father had made selling ice cream because I didn’t want to live a life of affluence based on a product that could harm people’s health. I also recoiled at the idea of inheriting a life of privilege while so many others had to struggle for their basic livelihood.

I didn’t take the steps I did because I thought money is bad. On the contrary, I believe money is good and important. Without it, it’s impossible to thrive in the modern world and difficult even to survive. But money isn’t a god. It’s something to use. Not something to crave or to worship, and certainly not something that should rule our lives.

There seem to be two schools of thought about the relationship between money and happiness: On the one hand, there are those who say money isn’t that important. “You can only become truly accomplished at something you love,” writes Maya Angelou. “Don’t make money your goal. Instead, pursue the things you love doing, and then do them so well that people can’t take their eyes off you.”

In her camp is the environmental advocate John Muir, who once said that he was better off than the billionaire E. H. Harriman. “I have all the money I want,” Muir explained, “and he hasn’t.”

On the other hand, there are those who say that money is essential, and that there is something spiritually pretentious and elitist about pretending otherwise. It’s not the love of money that is the root of all evil, they would say, but the lack of money. Maybe money can’t directly buy happiness, but it certainly can buy lots of things that contribute tremendously to happiness. While it is possible to be happy with less, it is far easier to be happy with more. They would argue that those who believe money is not important have probably never watched their children go hungry.

I believe there is truth in both camps. Up to a certain point, money is vital to happiness for almost everyone. It can buy food, clothing, and housing and provide for other basic needs. Once a person’s basic needs are met, though, money takes on a different meaning.
Guatemala-Smile.jpg
Despite lower income levels, Guatemalans are happier than people in the United States.
For a family barely scraping by, $500 could be the difference between paying the rent or being evicted—between having a place to sleep and being homeless. To someone more affluent, $500 might simply mean a few hours spent shopping for clothes, or that much more financial security and increased savings.

But what does science tell us about the relationship between money and happiness? A vast amount of research about the question has been conducted globally in the last few decades. As more and more scientists have become involved, the studies, experiments, and forms of research have become increasingly sophisticated. No longer must scientists simply rely on what people tell them. What people say can be verified. Well-being can be assessed by various empirical measures with high consistency, reliability, and validity.

This research has consistently pointed to a conclusion that might surprise some: Money brings happiness only insofar as it lifts people out of poverty. Once that point is clearly passed, the link between monetary wealth and happiness is actually very small.

Why money is like beer


Take, for example, the people of Denmark and Sweden, who have consistently been found to be among the happiest in the world. These prosperous societies score at or near the top of most measures of quality of life, happiness, and social well-being. What makes things interesting, though, is that the people of Costa Rica, according to these same studies, are actually happier, even though the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of Costa Rica is only one-fourth that of Denmark and Sweden.

Surveys of the richest Americans show happiness scores identical to those of the Amish.

Similarly, Guatemalans are happier than people in the United States, despite income levels only a tenth as high. And the people of Honduras are as happy as those of the United Kingdom, even with a per capita GDP that is only 12 percent as great.

In fact, the more you look at the data comparing people’s monetary wealth with their levels of happiness, the harder it is to see any correlation at all once you get past the poverty line. Surveys of the richest Americans, for example, show happiness scores identical to those of the Amish, a people who intentionally live almost entirely without cars or telephones.

Of course, the lowest life-satisfaction scores come from the world’s most destitute people. The happiness numbers for homeless people in Calcutta, India, for example, are among the lowest ever recorded. But, according to research by psychologists Robert Biswas-Diener and Ed Diener, when these people have enough money to move off the street and into a slum, their levels of happiness and satisfaction rise and become nearly equivalent to those of a sample of college students from 47 nations.

Moldova, Photo by Stelios Lazakis

Equality and the Good Life: Interview with Richard Wilkinson

What the healthiest and happiest societies have in common is not that they have more, but that what they have is more equitably shared.

Psychologist David Lykken, summarizing his extensive studies on the subject, says that “people who go to work in their overalls and on the bus are just as happy, on the average, as those in suits who drive to work in their own Mercedes.” How about the ultra-rich? According to a study by Ed Diener and his colleagues, the Forbes 100 wealthiest Americans are barely happier than the average person. The happiness scores of the richest Americans, in fact, are only slightly higher than those of Masai tribesmen, a semi-nomadic African people who live without electricity or running water.

After analyzing more than 150 studies on wealth and happiness, Diener and his colleague Martin Seligman, two of the world’s top experts on the science of happiness, wrote: 
“Although economic output has risen steeply over the past decades, there has been no rise in life satisfaction... and there has been a substantial increase in depression and distrust.”

Money, it seems, is a little like beer. Most people like it, but more is not necessarily better. A beer might improve your mood, but drinking 10 beers not only won’t increase your happiness tenfold, it might not increase it at all.

Yet we keep thinking that having more of the things money can buy will make us happier. Despite our current economic problems, we still have bigger homes, more cars, more appliances, and more possessions than any people have ever had at any time in history.

But has acquiring all this stuff been worth the costs? While we’ve been on this multi-decade shopping binge, our rates of depression, obesity, heart attacks, divorces, and suicides have skyrocketed. Antidepressants are now the most commonly prescribed drugs in the United States. As a nation, we consume two-thirds of the global market for drugs prescribed to combat chronic sadness and hopelessness. One study found that today, the average American child experiences higher levels of anxiety than did the average child under psychiatric care in the 1950s. And yet, when Americans were asked in a survey what single factor they believed would most improve the quality of their lives, the most common answer was “more money.”

Maybe we’re caught in ancient fears of not having enough to make it, primal fears of not having what we need to survive. Maybe we’re stuck believing that nothing is ever enough, that true satisfaction is impossible because danger lurks around every corner. Maybe we’ve been bombarded from an early and vulnerable age with the message that money and the things it can buy are our only ticket to happiness. And maybe we’ve been hampered, as a people, by the fact that the primary index we have created to measure our economic well-being is absolutely guaranteed to get everything wrong.

Pointing us in the wrong direction


The primary index we have created to measure our economic well-being is absolutely guaranteed to get everything wrong.
For the past 75 years, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been the fundamental measure of a nation’s economic progress. The reason the United States is considered the world’s most prosperous nation is because it has the largest GDP. Economists, politicians, and other leaders take for granted that the higher a nation’s GDP is, the better off are its people.

Unfortunately, using the GDP (and its nearly identical twin, the GNP) to measure well-being and genuine progress makes about as much sense as using a fork to eat soup: It’s the wrong tool for the job. Two months before he was assassinated, Robert F. Kennedy explained why:

Our gross national product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors, and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwoods, and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm, nuclear warheads, and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country. It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.

How can we develop a healthy relationship to wealth and to genuine economic progress when our most fundamental gauge to assess societal well-being is so askew? The GDP, like the GNP, simply adds together all monetary expenditures. The GDP does not care one whit what it is we’re consuming, about how equitably distributed a country’s wealth might be, nor whether the money we spend is ours or is borrowed from future generations. It is entirely possible for the nation with the world’s highest GDP to also have the world’s highest poverty rate and the world’s highest level of national debt.

The GDP rises whenever money changes hands. When families break down and children require foster care, the GDP grows, but not so when parents successfully care for their children. People who max out their credit cards buying things they don’t need make the GDP look good. People who save their money and live sensibly don’t. Seen through such a lens, the most economically productive people are cancer patients in the midst of getting a divorce. Healthy people in happy marriages, in contrast, are economically invisible, and all the more so if they cook at home, walk to work, grow food in a home garden, and don’t smoke.

By counting the depletion of natural resources as current income rather than as the liquidation of assets, the GDP “violates both basic accounting principles and common sense.”

In recent years, the GDP has gotten substantial boosts from toxic spills such as the Exxon Valdez disaster and the boom in prison construction. Meanwhile, natural resources such as rivers and oceans, topsoil and forests, the ozone layer and the atmosphere, are seen as essentially valueless—unless, of course, they are exploited and converted into revenue. But even then, the GDP measures the resulting economic activity in a manner that is fundamentally misleading. As economist Mark Anielski points out, by counting the depletion of natural resources as current income rather than as the liquidation of assets, the GDP “violates both basic accounting principles and common sense.”

Alternatives to the GDP


One of the reasons the current financial crisis took so many economic experts by surprise is that the systems we use to measure our economic well-being failed us. They did not register that the euphoric growth performance of the world economy prior to the 2008 downturn was, in fact, utterly unsustainable. It is clear now that much of the then-heralded economic growth was a statistical mirage, based on real estate and stock prices that had been grossly inflated by bubbles. If we had had a better measurement system, would we have seen the problems earlier? Would governments have been able to take precautionary measures to avoid or at least minimize the present turmoil?

As long as we continue to rely on the GDP, our leaders will lack a timely and reliable set of wealth accounts—the “balance sheets” of the economy. Fortunately, many efforts are underway to develop economic indexes that are far more reliable measures of genuine wealth and progress than the GDP. Amartya Sen is a Nobel laureate in economics from Harvard who has received more than 80 honorary doctorates for his work in understanding the underlying mechanisms of poverty, famine, and gender inequality. He is also one of many leading economists who recognize that, as he put it in 2008, “the gross domestic product is very misleading and something must be done to get better measures of well-being.” Professor Sen and another Nobel laureate in economics, Joseph Stiglitz, are co-chairmen of the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, established in 2008 by French president Nicolas Sarkozy to develop an alternative to the GDP.

 The government of China, similarly, is increasingly recognizing that the nation’s torrid economic growth has come at a growing ecological and social cost. Anielski, author of a groundbreaking book on alternatives to the GDP, The Economics of Happiness: Building Genuine Wealth, is working with the Chinese government on how to adopt “green GDP accounting.” The goal is to take quality of life and the environment into account when measuring the country’s economic health.

There are many other alternatives under development, including one being created by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, an international consortium of 30 countries that are committed to democracy and the market economy.

I’m heartened to see the many efforts under way to develop alternatives to the GDP that take into account the health of our lives, the strength of our communities, and the sustainability of the environment. And yet it is no simple task to develop a monetized system that can measure the real determinants of happiness and well-being and do justice to the vast complexities of modern economic life. It may be that no single alternative index will emerge to entirely replace the GDP, and we will come to rely on a variety of indexes, each with its own perspectives, to provide us with as complete a picture as possible of the real state of our economic affairs and our societal well-being. And then perhaps we will be able to develop policies that lead to our ultimate goal—a sustainable prosperity shared by all.


john_robbins.jpgJohn Robbins is the author of the million-copy best-seller Diet for a New America, which became a PBS series, and the founder of the nonprofit organization EarthSave International. This essay is adapted from his new book The New Good Life.

10 Common Sense Principles for a New Economy

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Flower through concrete, photo by Jo Christian Oterhals
I find hope in the fact that millions of people the world over are seeing through the moral and practical fallacies underlying the Wall Street economy and—by contributing to the creation of a New Economy—are taking charge of their economic lives.


Here are ten common sense principles to frame the New Economy that we the people must now bring forth:
  1. The proper purpose of an economy is to secure just, sustainable, and joyful livelihoods for all. This may come as something of a shock to Wall Street financiers who profit from financial bubbles, securities fraud, low wages, unemployment, foreign sweatshops, tax evasion, public subsidies, and monopoly pricing.

  2. GDP is a measure of the economic cost of producing a given level of human well-being and happiness. In the economy, as in any well-run business, the goal should be to minimize cost, not maximize it.

  3. A rational reallocation of real resources can reduce the human burden on the Earth’s biosphere and simultaneously improve the health and happiness of all. The Wall Street economy wastes enormous resources on things that actually reduce the quality of our lives—war, automobile dependence, suburban sprawl, energy-inefficient buildings, financial speculation, advertising, incarceration for minor, victimless crimes. The most important step toward bringing ourselves into balance with the biosphere is to eliminate the things that are bad for our health and happiness.

  4. Markets allocate efficiently only within a framework of appropriate rules to maintain competition, cost internalization, balanced trade, domestic investment, and equality. These are essential conditions for efficient market function. Without rules, a market economy quickly morphs into a system of corporate monopolies engaged in suppressing wages, exporting jobs, collecting public subsidies, poisoning air, land, and water, expropriating resources, corrupting democracy, and a host of other activities that represent an egregiously inefficient and unjust distribution of resources.

  5. A proper money system roots the power to create and allocate money in people and communities in order to facilitate the creation of livelihoods and ecologically balanced community wealth. Money properly serves life, not the reverse. Wall Street uses money to consolidate its power to expropriate the real wealth of the rest of the society. Main Street uses money to connect underutilized resources with unmet needs. Public policy properly favors Main Street.

  6. Money, which is easily created with a simple accounting entry, should never be the deciding constraint in making public resource allocation decisions. This is particularly obvious in the case of economic recessions or depressions, which occur when money fails to flow to where it is needed to put people to work producing essential goods and services. If money is the only lack, then make the accounting entry and get on with it.

  7. Speculation, the inflation of financial bubbles, risk externalization, the extraction of usury, and the use of creative accounting to create money from nothing, unrelated to the creation of anything of real value, serve no valid social purpose. The Wall Street corporations that engage in these activities are not in the business of contributing to the creation of real community wealth. They are in the business of expropriating it, a polite term for theft. They should be regulated or taxed out of existence.
  8. Greed is not a virtue; sharing is not a sin. If your primary business purpose is not to serve the community, you have no business being in business.

  9. The only legitimate reason for government to issue a corporate charter extending special privileges favoring a particular enterprise is to serve a clearly defined public purpose. That purpose should be clearly stated in the corporate charter and be subject to periodic review.

  10. Public policy properly favors local investors and businesses dedicated to creating community wealth over investors and businesses that come only to extract it. The former are most likely to be investors and businesses with strong roots in the communities in which they do business. We properly favor them. 


David Korten author pic
David Korten is co-founder and board chair of YES! Magazine, co-chair of the New Economy Working Group, president of the People-Centered Development Forum, and a founding board member of the Business Alliance for Local Living Economies (BALLE). His books include Agenda for a New Economy: From Phantom Wealth to Real Wealth, The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community, and the international best seller When Corporations Rule the World.

10 Ways to Solve the Jobs Problem

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bicycle repair
Photo by Alex Ferguson
As the midterm political season heats up, one word on every politician’s lips is “jobs.” And for good reason. People are hurting—they can’t pay their mortgages, send their kids to college, pay their dental bills. Young people are wondering if they have a place in the work world.
So the economic pundits cheer when car sales go up, housing starts rise, consumer confidence strengthens. But as the oily ooze in the Gulf tars yet another beach, we all sense something is terribly wrong. We can’t keep tearing up the planet to keep ourselves employed. There must be another way.
So—imagine a no-holds-barred “summit” that comes up with ideas to solve both our job and environmental problems. What might it come up with?

Here is my starter list. You can add your own ideas in the comments to this article on the YES! website.
 1. More farms, less agribusiness. Agribusiness substitutes chemicals and machinery for labor and employs remarkably few people. Small organic farms are far more productive per acre and bring the people back.
 2. More repair, fewer products. Instead of tossing those shoes, that toaster, that computer, let’s fix them—and employ repair people in the process.
 3. More recycling, less mining. Ray Anderson of the Interface flooring company says we already have enough nylon to meet the world’s carpet needs forever. The same may be true for aluminum, steel, copper, and other easily recyclable materials. We just need good systems for recovering them.
What if we stopped subsidizing advertising with tax breaks and focused on educating people to lead satisfying lives?
 4. More renovations, less construction. Our nation has 129 million housing units. We build new ones and let old ones deteriorate. How about renovating what we have and in-filling our cities to use existing sidewalks, gas pipes, water mains, and roads?
 5. More restoration, less destruction. Whether it’s forests, Superfund sites, or oil-laced wetlands, it’s time to restore. Some restoration can even pay for itself, as in restoration forestry where folks make products from the fire-prone, small-diameter trees normally considered too small to market.
 6. More bike paths, fewer highways. They both cost money, but one is good for our health and good for the planet. What’s not to like?
 7. More local businesses, fewer megastores. Locally owned stores employ more people per goods sold and you can often talk to a decision-maker about your purchase.
 8. More dishwashing, fewer throw-aways. What if we got rid of all the disposable containers in fast food restaurants? At my friend Ron Sher’s Crossroads Shopping Center near Seattle, the food court vendors share a common crockery supply. No trees needed. It works.
 9. More education, less advertising. Let’s face it. Advertising is about making us feel inadequate for something we don’t yet have. What if we stopped subsidizing advertising with tax breaks and focused on educating people to lead satisfying lives?
10. More clean energy, less fossil fuel. Here we do need new stuff—wind turbines, solar panels, insulation, passenger trains. Politicians are providing some—though not enough—funding for these sources of “green jobs.” It’s the other items on this list they’re not even talking about—but need to.
You may be thinking that my list isn’t realistic because these options cost more or depend on government funding. But that’s partly because governments subsidize oil, agribusiness, nuclear plants, ports, highways, advertising, and other unhealthy choices.
So the next time you hear a politician talk about jobs, try comparing the solutions offered to this list. By breaking out of the narrow range of options that keeps policy discussions stuck, we can create jobs that not only sustain families, but also build community and restore the living systems of our planet.

Fran Korten, 70pxFran Korten wrote this column for A Resilient Community, the Fall 2010 issue of YES! Magazine. Fran is publisher of YES! Magazine.

Earthquake Relief in Pakistan

Krpasundarananda is a Meditation teacher with Ananda Marga and has been a Monk since 1991. His first assignment was in Australia, then he was transferred to New Zealand where he worked for more than eight years teaching meditation at the universities, renovating a meditation center, organizing yoga weekends and setting up (and renovating) a retreat center. Then in 2000 he was transferred to Africa where he started to make newsletters like what is posted below. Though his main job is to teach meditation and help people to realize their spiritual goals, in many cases people don't have the minimum necessities of life, so social service has become important. As his background is engineering and he always had an interest in construction and alternative energy, he got involved with alternative building through an article someone forwarded him about Nader Kalili. In the last few years he has built many domes in different places around the world.
Completed structure at one of the training sites
Trying a mud plaster as finishing.

 
A vaulted structure, using a fiberglass, shelter for traffic police as a mould. Once finished the green box would be removed. The military was going to use our creation as a garage.

At the other training site were about 10 domes. The president was going to come and the whole site was to be landscaped and made to feel like a homey village.
Meetings about reconstruction
The tent camps where many were housed.
Way to cold for Winter!
 
More experimental shelters. They should be cheap, quick to build, warm and strong!
Not an easy combination. The domes do well.

So much destruction, but life goes on and a restaurant was up and running.


Plaster and more plaster. It had to be perfect for the president's visit... I think less perfect looks nicer and... is a lot less plaster!
Some more plaster for the entrance...
We kept it 'organic' shape.
The opening could be square..

Some, I hope, Artistic shots...
To see hundreds more photos of the work done by CalEarth in Pakistan go to www.calearthpakistan.org


Monday, September 13, 2010

Road Maps: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics



Introduction to Road Maps

To start learning more about Road Maps, please see the introduction to Road maps (D-4500-4) [34K]. Note that this is an Acrobat document (.pdf format) and you should have the Adobe Acrobat Reader or the Netscape version which supports the Acrobat format to view it. If you need help with getting the Acrobat reader, visit the Adobe Site or read our help page.
A note to those using Netscape to view Acrobat files: To properly save an Acrobat file, use the "Source" option instead of the "Text" option in the "Save As" dialog box.
Road Maps Help
Please use the webmaster@clexchange.org email address both for any technical questions regarding the downloading of Road Maps, and for questions and comments about the exercises and examples in Road Maps itself.
Road Maps Appendix
The Road Maps Appendix contains a collection of short papers that are designed to help the reader during the process of going through Road Maps. The papers include the Road Maps Glossary, A guide to using Vensim and converting from STELLA to Vensim, and a series of papers on system dynamics modeling.
Books
You will need several books to complete Road Maps.
Downloading
To download any chapter of Road Maps (with all of its papers and models), simply click on the (Mac) or (PC) label next to the name of the chapter, available in either SIT (Macintosh) or ZIP (PC) formats. To download a particular paper, click on the name of that paper. All documents are in the Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) format. The approximate size of the archive is available besides each chapter for gauging download times.

Go to a Chapter:
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |10| Appendix
road maps 0 Road Maps 0
  1. Introduction to Road maps (D-4500-10).
  2. This guide is a brief introduction to Road Maps, it gives a summary of the contents of each chapter, advises on the best way to use Road Maps and explains what you will need to begin your study.
road maps 1 Road Maps 1
  1. Road Maps 1: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics (D-4501-7)
    This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  2. System Dynamics and K-12 Teachers (J. Forrester) (D-4665-5)
  3. Introduces systems and feedback loops, two important ideas which will be further developed in more readings throughout Road Maps. A strong grasp of systems and feedback loops will build a good foundation for learning more advanced principles in system dynamics.
  4. System Dynamics and Learner-Centered-Learning in Kindergarten through 12th Grade Education [49K] (Jay W. Forrester) (D-4337)
  5. An argument for the necessity of change in the educational process and the applicability of system dynamics in K-12 education.
  6. Simulating Hamlet in the Classroom [74K]  (Pamela Hopkins) (D-4540-1)
  7. An example of a STELLA model successfully used in a high school English classroom.
  8. System Dynamics Meets the Press, an excerpt from The Global Citizen [29K] (Donella Meadows) (D-4143-1)
  9. A narration of experiences of a systems thinker and the struggle to use systems concepts correctly in today's society.
  10. Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems [464K]  (Jay W. Forrester) (D-4468-2)
  11. An introduction to the concepts of system dynamics, discussing social policies and their derivation from incomplete understanding of complex systems.
road maps 2 Road Maps 2
  1. Road Maps 2: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics [65K]  (D-4502-9)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. The First Step [367K]  (Leslie Martin) (D-4694)
  4. A hands-on introduction to system dynamics modeling that uses a series of simple population models.
  5. Beginner Modeling Exercises [135K]  (Leslie Martin) (D-4347-7)
  6. Exercises modeling constant flows. Develops understanding of the basic stock-and-flow structure through examples taken from a wide variety of systems.
  7. An Introduction to Feedback [132K]  (Leslie Martin) (D-4691)
  8. A first look at the positive and negative feedback loops found in system dynamics models.
  9. Graphical Integration Exercises Part1: Exogenous Rates  [106K] (A. Oh) (D-4547-1)
  10. An introduction to graphical integration of constant flows and step function flows.
  11. Introduction to Computer Simulation, Chapter 13 [339K] (N. Roberts et al.)
  12. A simple and understandable explanation of levels and rates.
  13. Formulating Models of Simple Systems Using Vensim PLE (Nelson Repenning) (D-4697-4)
  14. A beginner's tutorial for Vensim PLE. (The above document (D-4697-2) is not included in the "RM2.exe" file. Please download it separately)
road maps 3 Road Maps 3
  1. Road Maps 3: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics (D-4503-8)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Graphical Integration Exercises Part 2: Ramp Functions [109K] (Kevin Agatstein, Lucia Breierova) (D-4571)
  4. Graphical integration of linearly increasing and decreasing flows.
  5. Beginner Modeling Exercises Section 2: Mental simulation of Positive Feedback [46K] (Joseph Whelan) (D-4487) 
  6. Simple exercises on positive feedback systems.
  7. Beginner Modeling Exercises Section 3: Mental simulation of Negative Feedback [88K] (Helen Zhu) (D-4536-2)
  8. Simple exercises on negative feedback systems.
  9. Study Notes in System Dynamics, Exercises 4,5 (Michael Goodman)
  10. Exercises on first-order positive and negative feedback loops. Instructions on how to obtain this book are provided here as well as in Road Maps 3 (D-4503-4).
  11. Introduction to Computer Simulation, Chapter 15 (Nancy Roberts, et al.)
  12. Using simulation to analyze simple positive and negative feedback loops.
  13. Study Notes in System Dynamics, Section 3.10-3.12 (Michael Goodman)
  14. Simple examples of negative feedback systems.
  15. Study Notes in System Dynamics, Chapters 4,5 (Michael Goodman)
  16. An introduction to S-shaped growth, and a stepwise construction of a simple model.
  17. Urban Dynamics (Jay W. Forrester)
  18. An application of system dynamics to study urban problems. Instructions on how to obtain this book are provided here as well as in Road Maps 3 (D-4503-4).
road maps 4 Road Maps 4
  1. Road Maps 4: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics (D-4504-7)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Generic Structures: First order positive feedback loops  [80K]  (Stephanie Albin, Mark Choudhari) (D-4474-2)
  4. An introduction to the generic structure in positive feedback systems.
  5. Generic Structures: First order negative feedback loops [88K]  (Stephanie Albin) (D-4475-2)
  6. An introduction to the generic structure in negative feedback systems.
  7. Beginner Modeling Exercises Section 4: Mental Simulation: Adding constant flows [83K]  (Alan Coronado) (D-4546-2)
  8. Simple exercises on introducing a constant flow to positive and negative feedback systems.
  9. Building the Fish Banks Model & Renewable Resource Depletion (MAC)[521K] (PC)[368K] (Joseph Whelan, Matthew Halbower) (D-4543)
  10. Description of The Fishing Game and the building of a STELLA model of a fishing system.
  11. Problems with Causal Loop Diagrams [204K]  (George Richardson) (D-3312-1)
  12. A discussion of causal loop diagrams and the inherent problems associated with them.
road maps 5 Road Maps 5
  1. Road Maps 5: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics (D-4505-8)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Introduction to Delays, Chapter 17 (Nancy Roberts, et al.)
  4. Introducing the uses of delays in computer simulation.
  5. Answers to Exercises for Chapter 17: Introduction To Delays from Introduction to Computer Simulation [80K] (Kamil Msefer, Mark Choudhari) (D-4415-6)
  6. Solutions to exercises introducing the use of delays in computer simulation.
  7. Beginner Modeling Exercises Section 5: Mental simulation of Combining Feedbacks in First-Order Systems [134K] (Laughton Stanley, Helen Zhu) (D-4593-2)
  8. Simple exercises on systems producing S-shaped growth.
  9. Generic Structures: S-shaped growth I [87K] (Terri Duhon, Marc Glick) (D-4432-2)
  10. An introduction to generic structures in systems producing S-shaped growth.
  11. Dynamic Simulation Models: How Valid Are They? [24K] (Raymond Shreckengost) (D-4463)
  12. An outline of several tests that can be applied to a model to test validity.
  13. Teaching System Dynamics: Looking at Epidemics [212K] (Will Glass-Husain) (D-4243-3)
  14. Material for teaching system dynamics concepts through a game based on the spread of an epidemic.
  15. Graphical Integration Exercises Part 3: Combining Flows [222K] (Kevin Agatstein, Lucia Breierova) (D-4596)
  16. Graphical integration of combined inflows and outflows.
  17. Beyond the Limits (Donella Meadows, et al.)
  18. An insightful book about the need for a transition to a sustainable world. Instructions on how to obtain this book are provided here as well as in Road Maps 5 (D-4505-5).
road maps 6 Road Maps 6
  1. Road Maps 6: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics [85K] (D-4506-7)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Economics Supply and Demand (Joseph Whelan, Kamil Msefer) (D-4388-2)
  4. A system dynamics perspective on supply and demand.
  5. Generic Structures in Oscillating Systems I [88K] (Celeste Chung) (D-4426-3)
  6. Two real-life scenarios illustrating the transferability of an oscillation structure.
  7. Exploring S-Shaped Growth [229K] (Leslie Martin) (D-4476-2)
  8. Development of the concept of generic structures in systems producing S-shaped growth.
  9. Modeling Exercises: Section 1 [802K] (Joseph Whelan) (D-4421-2)
  10. The first of a series of independent modeling experiences.
  11. Systems thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond [696K] (Barry Richmond) (D-4565)
  12. An argument for teaching systems thinking through learner-centered learning as well as the application of systems thinking to the acquisition of various critical thinking skills.
road maps 7 Road Maps 7
  1. Road Maps 7: A Guide to Learning System Dynamics (D-4507-4)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Unexpected Behaviors in Higher-Order Positive Feedback Loops [112K] (Aaron Ashford) (D-4455-2)
  4. A discussion of possible behaviors that can occur in higher-order positive feedback loops.
  5. Mistakes and Misunderstandings: Examining Dimensional Inconsistency [16K] (Michael Shayne Gary) (D-4452-1)
  6. Examination of a model in which a dimensional inconsistency mistake was made, and a suggested improvement of the model.
  7. Modeling Exercises: Section 2 [230K] (Joseph Whelan) (D-4451-3)
  8. The second in a series of independent modeling experiences exploring an urban dynamics model and offering an exercise on mental simulation.
  9. Graphical Integration Exercises Part 4: Reverse Graphical Integration [158K] (Laughton Stanley) (D-4603)
  10. Explanation and methods of the process of reverse graphical integration: determing the graph of the net flow from the graph of the stock.
  11. System dynamics, systems thinking, and soft OR [32K] (Jay W. Forrester) (D-4405-1)
  12. The author's opinion on the differences between system dynamics, systems thinking, and soft operations research.
road maps 8 Road Maps 8
  1. Road Maps 8: A Guide To Learning System Dynamics (D-4508-4)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. Building a System Dynamics Model Part 1: Conceptualization [129K] (Stephanie Albin) (D-4597)
  4. A series of papers on the process of model-building starts with the first stage: conceptualization.
  5. Mistakes and Misunderstandings: Use of Generic Structures and the Reality of Stocks and Flows [67K] (Lucia Breierova) (D-4646-2)
  6. Examination and correction of a model, forced to fit a generic structure, in which the stocks do not represent real-world accumulations.
  7. Oscillating Systems 2: Sustained Oscillation [199K] (Kevin Agatstein) (D-4602-2)
  8. A detailed explanation of the structural causes of sustained oscillation illustrated with two real-life examples.
  9. An Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis [397K] (Lucia Breierova, Mark Choudhari) (D-4526-2)
  10. An introduction to the concepts and methods of sensitivity analysis of system dynamics models.
  11. Learning through System Dynamics as Preparation for the 21st Century [41K] (Jay W. Forrester) (D-4434-1)
  12. Prof. Forrester's keynote speech at the 1994 Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling Conference for K-12 Education proposes objectives that should be achieved through a system dynamics education.
road maps 9 Road Maps 9
  1. Road Maps 9: A Guide To Learning System Dynamics (D-4509-4)
  2. This guide will lead you through the readings. The guide provides a summary of the important insights and highlights the system principles learned in each chapter of Road Maps.
  3. The Credit Card Model [80K] (Manas Ratha) (D-4683-2)
  4. A model-building exercise that uses a simple credit-card model to demonstrate a characteristic behaviorof complex systems: short-term benefit, long term cost.
  5. Mistakes and Misunderstandings: Table Functions [96K] (Leslie Martin) (D-4653-2)
  6. A mistakes and misunderstandings paper that explains how to formulate robust and dimmensionally consistent table functions.
  7. Generic Structures: Overshoot and Collapse [322K] (Lucia Breierova) (D-4480)
  8. An introduction to the generic structure producing overshoot and collapse, using several real-world examples.
  9. Graphical Integration Exercises Part Five: Qualitative Graphical Integration [150K] (Manas Ratha) (D-4675)
  10. Exercises developing an intuitive, qualitative understanding of the process of graphical integration.
  11. A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Models [98K] (John D. Sterman) (D-4101-1)
  12. An overview of various computer modeling techniques, their characteristics, capabilities, and limitations.
road maps 10 Road Maps 10
  1. Road Maps 10

appendix Road Maps Appendix [750K] (Mac) (PC)
  1. Road Maps Glossary [24K] (D-4498)
  2. A dictionary of commonly used terms in the Road Maps series.
  3. Formulating Models of Simple Systems Using Vensim PLE [938K] (Nelson Repenning) (D-4697-2)
    A beginner's tutorial for Vensim PLE.
  4. Vensim Conversion Guide [15K] (Aaron Diamond) (D-4856)
  5. Highlights some of the differences in modeling with STELLA and Vensim PLE.
  6. System Dynamics Model Correctness Checklist [11K] (Rebekah Wabha and Danny Lai) (D-4851)
  7. A paper that describes some important steps for constructing a system dynamics model.
  8. Table Functions [135K] (Lei Lei and Nathaniel Choge) (D-4865)
  9. Table functions are helpful in formulating no-linear relationships between two variables.
MIT SDEP Home

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Nine Strategies for Applying Smart Growth Principles to Climate Change

A growing number of local governments are using smart growth approaches in their efforts to address climate change in their communities. 

A new report, Getting Smart about Climate Change, outlines nine strategies for successfully applying smart growth principles to climate concerns on the local and regional levels:

Create more sustainable and resilient communities.
Green the local economy.
Engage the community in the climate change planning process
Approach climate change planning on a regional evel
Address transportation through transit-oriented development and complete streets
Promote density through infill development and brownfield redevelopment
Adopt green building policies.
Preserve and create green space.
Plan for climate adaptation.

Download the full report.






Monday, September 6, 2010

How to Raise a Kid Who Cares

Introduction

As parents, we want our children to grow up to be caring people, who can do good deeds for others. But when we see our children tease or get teased, and push, pull and grab, we often wonder how they will ever grow up to be caring, productive members of society.

"Growing up and becoming a caring person is dependent on the kinds of experiences we have when we are young. Children are not born with the ability to care fully formed; they develop into caring individuals by how we work with them, how we model our behavior, what we teach them, and what we do together," says Diane Levin, Ph.D. author of Remote Control Childhood and Senior Advisor to this Web guide.


Teaching children how to take responsible action is a process that develops gradually over time. From preschool to high school, it's a process of working together to solve problems directly connected to your children's immediate experience. It's important to discuss factors that may impede the development of caring such as violent media and a commercial culture that makes wanting more important than doing.


Raising children who care may be one of the most important things you can do as a parent. This guide provides strategies and ideas to help you find your way.


The Caring Continuum:
How Caring for Others Develops

A child who cares is someone who learns how to help other people. This child feels he can make a difference, has ideas of what actions to take that can make a difference, and feels motivated to do them.


Children are not born with a fully-formed ability to care. This sensibility develops gradually and the experiences children have can build or undermine its development.


As parents, it can at times be frustrating watching our children "not care" or "not care enough." Learning how caring develops can help us foster their caring impulses. The insights below offer a picture of how this process develops over time.


The ability to care starts with infancy. When young babies are held, fed, comforted, smiled at and played with, they feel cared for and develop positive caring attitudes towards their environment. An early sign of caring is when a baby coos towards a mother, father, or caregiver.


Gradually young children learn to do things in caring ways. Between the ages of one and two, children begin to express caring through their actions. When they hug Mommy and Daddy and get a response, they are learning things they can do to make others happy and feel good. They play-act caring by hugging a baby doll or stuffed animal and becoming its caregiver.


Preschoolers start by caring mostly about themselves and only gradually gain awareness of the needs of others. Predominantly egocentric, they often can't understand the point of view of another person, who is upset. But they begin to understand when guided by caring parents and teachers. Through discussions they can begin to see "win-win" solutions to problems and how helping one another makes everyone feel good, because everyone's needs are met.


School-age children begin to balance caring for themselves with caring for others. While still egocentric, they begin to realize that it can feel good to help others, and start to see the positive effect they can have.


Being a caring child does not mean caring all the time. It does not mean that your caring child will never hate his sister, never grab the candy, or will be "good" all the time. Instead, a caring child will take caring actions and experience caring feelings integrated within a larger range of feelings and responses.


Practical Ways to Nurture Caring Kids

When you are encouraging kids to care, the goal is not to show children one "right" way to think about or respond to a problem. Instead, help them come up with strategies that make sense to them. Here are some ideas:

Help children take actions that grow out of their own concerns. Talk about what could be done to help solve problems. No matter how well-intentioned you are, don't tell your child what he must do.

Strategize tangible ways kids can make a difference.

* Contribute a portion of their allowance or make a holiday gift to a cause they can understand. Look through your mail together from nonprofits and let them choose.
* Gather old toys and clothing to give to a local charity.
* Volunteer at local organizations that help those in need.
* Give a gift of "service" to a parent, friend or grandparent.

Show children there are many ways to care. Children can demonstrate caring by doing household chores, by getting homework done and getting to bed on time, by finding ways to help neighborhood friends or schoolmates in need, and even by being a good sport when you lose a game.

Help kids deal with problems in inclusive ways. Don't expect children to always feel generous and try not to make them feel guilty about it. Comments like "you need to be nice" or "share with your brother" may promote more feelings of anger and resentment than caring. Instead, ask questions that inspire kids to think of solutions, such as: "What can we do if you both want the ball?"

Make sure children know it is the job of adults to make the world a safe place. They should not think that their own sense of safety and well-being is dependent on their own actions. "To reassure them and give perspective, you might discuss the fact that adults will always keep them safe, as everyone does their part in making a difference," advises Carlsson-Paige.

As children get older, talk about the causes of problems, not just the solutions. Discuss why a problem came about, what others are doing to try to solve it, and ask them to come up with their own solutions. Allow your kids to ask questions. "Research shows that children who do community service often discontinue unless they learn what caused a particular p problem or condition," advises Levin.
Talk With Your Preschooler About Caring

* Young children can relate caring best to issues in their daily lives. You can nurture the development of caring kids by asking simple questions.
* "The playground's dirty, what can we do to clean it up?"
* "Marion, Josh and John all want to play different games. How can we solve this problem so everyone feels good?"
* "Barbara hurt her knee. What can we do to help her feel better?"

Respect What Your School-Age Child Cares About

* Help your school age children take action on issues important to them.
* If she cares about helping animals, suggest she volunteer at an animal shelter, or make a donation to a wildlife organization.
* If he is concerned about hunger, volunteer together to serve a meal in a soup kitchen.
* If she cares about the environment; help her organize a block-wide street clean up, and pick an organization that does environmental action.


The Challenges

Why do some kids seem to care and others may not?

Numerous forces can undermine the development of children into positive social beings. While none of these might be considered harmful in moderation, too much of them, especially without discussion, may lead to kids who don't care. These challenges include:
Our "Buy Me That" Culture

Our "buy me that" culture promotes consumerism over activism. This can turn the focus of children's behavior from "I can do it" to "I want it." "Acquiring things as a source of happiness can permeate a child's sense of herself," says Nancy Carlsson-Paige, Ed.D., author of Best Day of the Week and a professor at Lesley University. "A child may begin to identify herself by what she has, wears, and plays with, rather than what she accomplishes from using her internal resources. Identification with merchandise can cause some children to tune out the needs of others and define well-being as what they get instead of what they do."
Too Much Screen Time

Over-exposure to passive media such as TV, video games and movies, can take children away from actively participating in their lives. While media in moderation is fun, fine and expected, over-consumption can lead to kids who don't care. "When children watch TV, they are interacting only indirectly with their world," comments Levin. "They are having second-hand experience where they passively observe the actions and ideas of others."
Imitative Play

If children are primarily engaging in passive play, where they imitate what they see on TV, they are less likely to be stimulated and take creative action on their own. "Highly-structured toys that are linked to TV programs and movies can make kids play look more like a TV script than an innovative play experience," notes Levin.
Violent Programming

TV, video and online games containing violent, anti-social, teasing and bullying behaviors can inhibit the development of caring It also undermines children's ability to feel powerful and effective from their own actions.


"Children who watch media with a lot of mean-spirited behavior, both in words and actions, can learn that hurting others is a regular and normal thing people do to solve their problems. In addition, a vicious cycle can be set up whereby children need media, media violence and media-related toys to feel strong, instead of finding strength in their own creative and positive actions," states Carlsson-Paige.


Read More at PBS Parent's Guide to Children and Media (www.pbs.org/parents/childrenandmedia/)
Problem-Solving Deficit Disorder

* "Children who spend a lot of time passively watching media, playing with highly structured toys or focusing on buying things may not be learning how to find and solve problems that arise from their own direct experience. As a result, they may not be learning how to be active agents who can affect their world. I call this 'problem-solving deficit disorder.'
* "On the other hand, 'pro-active solution developers' think of themselves as problem finders and problem solvers, who can have a positive impact on their world. It we want to raise children who care, this is what we need to help our children to grow up to become."
Diane E. Levin, Ph.D.


Some materials for this article were adapted from works by Diane Levin, including Remote Control Childhood, published by NAEYC. and the article, "From 'I Want It!' to 'I Can Do It!' Promoting Healthy Development in the Conusmer Culture," Exchange Magazine.

The New Heroes is a production of Oregon Public Broadcasting and Malone-Grove Productions Inc.

Lesson Plans for The New Heroes

These classroom materials are written for students in grades 6-12 to deepen their understanding of the world and related social issues. These activities will raise awareness of individuals who make a difference and show how problem-solvers begin and carry out their work. Students are likely to have many questions after viewing The New Heroes series. These classroom resources will help them answer questions raised by these powerful stories.
We hope to help students understand the following:
  • How do people really make a difference?
  • What is their approach? Their vision?
  • What are the steps or process to making a difference?
  • What kinds of people are good at this? Are there common characteristics and/or personal attributes that visionary problem-solvers have?
  • What do you care about?
  • What do the people around you need?
  • What is going on around you right now, in your own community?
  • What would you need to do now to get going?
As a result of these learning experiences, students should be better able to:
  • Recognize both problems and potential solutions to local issues.
  • Recognize that there are different levels of entry into involvement in social issues.
These resources contain two different types of materials to use in conjunction with the video series in your classroom. Lesson plans address themes that appear in multiple stories in the series and use short, specific video clips to explore the themes. Unit plans dig deeper into each of the four episodes in the series and use the full 20-minute video stories from the four episodes.