On average, global temperatures will exceed historical norms as soon as 2047 and no later than 2069, according to new research by scientists at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. In some places, it will happen a lot sooner: 2020 in Manokwari, Indonesia, and 2023 in Kingston, Jamaica, the researchers predict. For Washington, it will be 2047. If concerted steps are taken to rapidly mitigate carbon dioxide emissions, the warmup will be slowed by decades.
*Using temperature data from 1860 to 2005 as a baseline, climate departure describes the point in time that the average temperature of the coolest year after 2005 becomes warmer than the historic average temperature of the hottest year, for a specific location.